This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

 
Will Realtors be disintermediated by on-line tools? Probably not, but tech-savvy Realtors will supplant those who do not adapt

The big news in real estate is the market, of course. My view is that the American economy is much stronger and more resilient than you might guess from day-to-day reports.

But the other big story in real estate is the idea of “disintermediation” — replacing Realtors with some combination of do-it-yourself effort and hi-tech tools. The stock retort to this notion — and I have made it myself — is that people will never buy homes like they buy books on Amazon.

Perhaps so. But I lived through the desktop revolution in printing, so I have a different take about the dreaded word disintermediation.

If the triumphant yelp is that some travel agents and some stockbrokers still have jobs, I will point out that some blacksmiths still have jobs, too. Horses still need shoes. That much is beside the point.

Here’s my take on the matter: Don’t think in terms of disintermediation. Use the word “supplantation” instead. In industry after industry, old techniques are being supplanted by new ideas. More importantly, the old technicians are being supplanted by new ones.

This is not a necessary consequence, but it often works out that the “old hands” don’t want to make the change to the new ways of doing business. Even if they do, the “first-mover advantage” can be too great to overcome.

The same goes for everything — most especially real estate. Realtors who are not all the way onboard with the way business will be done in the future will be left behind at the station.

A real estate transaction is so complex that most people will continue to want professional advice — even as they handle many of the simpler functions Realtors might have done in the past. The work we do will be superficially similar to the work others have done in the past — but those others won’t be doing it any longer.

Will they have been disintermediated? Not if you insist that they haven’t. But they will have been well and truly supplanted.

When will that happen? Ask a blacksmith — if you can find one.

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This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

 
Zillow.com’s Mortgage Marketplace brings anonymous apples-to-apples mortgage rate quotes to consumers, free consumer leads to lenders

Wouldn’t it be great if you could get a broad array of mortgage quotes without having to make dozens of phone calls? And what if you could make a true apples-to-apples comparison among quotes? Better still, what if you could remain anonymous, making yourself known to the lender only when you are ready to do business?

Seattle-based real estate start-up Zillow.com last week released its long-anticipated mortgage lending product, called the Mortgage Marketplace, and it offers all those features and more.

Unlike Zillow’s “Zestimates,” the loan quotes are generated by real people, working lenders. Zillow will basically be acting as a hands-off intermediary between borrowers and loan originators.

Consumers using Zillow’s new Mortgage Marketplace will be able to anonymously solicit bids for loans from participating lenders. The consumer will fill out a detailed form disclosing all pertinent financial details.

The form will be submitted anonymously to participating lenders, who will, in their turn, produce estimated loan quotes, submitting them, through Zillow, to the consumer. The consumer will then have the choice to make direct contact with particular lenders to decide whom to do business with.

To a very large degree, the information asymmetry between lender and borrower will be done away with, since the loan quote will detail every fee associated with the loan. Moreover, Zillow will be implementing a reputation-management system whereby borrowers will be able to rate lenders on their performance.

In return, the lenders will receive Zillow’s mortgage leads at no cost.

What’s in it for Zillow.com? When you fill out a form requesting a loan quote, Zillow will be writing “cookies” to your local browser. They won’t be storing your financial details on their own servers, but they will be able to access those cookies in the future to target specific ads at you according to your demographic characteristics. Zillow will also be selling access to these cookies to other ad-supported sites.

So, just as with free-TV, in exchange for looking at advertising, you will get free anonymous mortgage quotes and lenders will get free mortgage leads.

Technorati Tags: arizona, arizona real estate, disintermediation, phoenix, phoenix real estate, real estate, real estate marketing, technology, Zillow.com

Technorati Tags: real estate, real estate marketing, real estate photography, real estate training, technology

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

 
Looking for a bargain in Phoenix real estate? Add some elbow grease to your money and go for a bank-owned home

Last week we talked about how home sellers can command a premium price in the current Phoenix real estate market, even if they are competing with nearby foreclosure properties, by putting the home into turn-key condition.

So what’s the counter-strategy? If you’re a buyer looking for the best possible price, what should you do?

Go for the bank-owned homes, of course. Trying to buy a short sale can be heart-rending. The price listed in the MLS will be meaningless. The lender will decide what price to allow. Still worse, lenders drag their feet on short sales. If they have any hope of keeping the loan alive, they won’t let the house go. Meanwhile, your own interest rate could be spiking, rendering you unqualified for the deal if and when it finally comes through.

By contrast, bank-owned homes (you might hear them called REOs, for “real estate owned”) can race through the escrow process. Once a bank has foreclosed on a home, all it wants is to get it off its books and recover whatever cash it can, as quickly as it can. In consequence, your offer might be approved in just a couple of days, with the bank rushing the closing date any way it can.

Because of that, your loan qualification matters a lot. If you look shaky to the bank, it might pick a lower offer from a stronger borrower just to be assured of getting whatever money it can out of the deal.

And then there is the condition of the home. People  losing their homes sometimes let the daily maintenance slide. Expect to see filthy carpets, scuffed-up paint, damaged doors. The air conditioner might have been removed and sold, or the water heater — or even the kitchen sink.

In most cases, the bargain price you get for the home is going to be offset somewhat by the money you will have to put into it. But if you are handy and industrious, the profit on these expenses can be two dollars or more in value for every dollar you spend.

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I was in this home with a buyer on Monday. It made me completely nuts, so, with the permission of the listing agent, Jeff Gary of the Principal Residential Group, I went back in yesterday to make a photographic record of the property the way it is right now.

It’s a short sale, which is always sad. You can see the home in happier days in our catalog of homes in F.Q. Story.

But what struck me about the home were the similarities to homes built around the same time — the early 1930s — by seminal Phoenix home-builder Frank B. Wallace. I believe this home was built by Wallace himself, but, if it wasn’t, it was built by people who were paying close attention to the new ideas he was bringing to the marketplace.

I ended up taking about six dozen photos of the home. I’m showing a few here, but you can find the rest at the web site I built for 718 West Moreland Street.

This is definitely a re-furb candidate. If retains a lot of the original fixtures and hardware, but that means it will need quite a bit of restoration. But if you’re looking for a very Wallace-like home to refurbish, this might be the one.

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